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2022 Global Business Outlook Report

Author: Social Media/Thursday, January 20, 2022/Categories: News

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The Taplow Group S.A. with 20 partner firms, located across 6 continents. Our expert consultants bring a wealth of expertise in their Countries whilst effortlessly combining internationally. We combine to bring business leaders economic and business information.

 

ASIA

Australia

Economic Outlook:The Australian Federal Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, revealed during Thursday’s mid-year budget update that Australia’s unemployment rate will fall comfortably below 5% in 2022 as the economy continues to rebound.

After many months of volatile unemployment figures due to lockdowns and falling participation rates, the mid-year economic and fiscal outlook (MYEFO) will forecast the unemployment rate to drop to 4.5% in the June quarter of next year.

This is down from the 5% unemployment rate forecast for June 2022 in the May budget.
In 2022-23, the unemployment rate will fall again to 4.25%, slightly below the 4.75% previously forecast, and the lowest level since September 2008.

By 2024-25, an extra million jobs are expected to be added to the economy, as growth rates return to pre-pandemic levels.

The Treasurer highlighted the unemployment rate as being sustained below 5% for the first time since before the global financial crisis and only the second time since the early 1970s.

Australia last had a run of unemployment below 5% from 2006 to 2009. More than $A 13bn has been paid in pandemic support payments since the Covid pandemic began for more than 6m claims, mainly as Covid disaster payments.

The improved unemployment rate – which refers to the share of the labour force that is without work and seeking employment – suggests an extra 150,000 people will be employed by 2024-25 across the economy than forecast in the May 2021-22 budgets.

MYEFO documents will also show that Treasury expects to see the creation of 1m jobs over the forward estimates with a total of more than 13.8 million people employed by June 2025.

The strong jobs growth will see a record high employment to population ratio of 63.1% by the September quarter next year. (Source Federal Treasurer press release).

Election update:It is expected that the Australian General election will be held sometime between April and May 2022. Independents may hold the balance of power.
Omicron virus is creating issues once again with border closures. Infection rates continue to climb. Workers are seeking to continue to work from home at least for 3 days per week. This may become a further issue in 2022.

Jobs growth:Industries tipped to continue growth in 2022 are, Healthcare sector, Logistics &Supply Chain, Cybersecurity, Technology and Biotechnology/ Pharmaceutical.

China

Keeping growth stability is top priority in 2022:The annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) released one memo confirming that Beijing has undoubtedly shifted its policy focus to “growth stability” due to downward pressure on growth. Seeking growth stability is top priority in 2022.

Property market curbs policy could be maintained: The memo reiterated the catchphrase “housing is for living, not for speculation”, which suggests there will be no 180-degree shift in existing property curbs for now, and the hawkish stance of “resolutely preventing new additions of local government hidden debt”. The high expectation on easing the property market might be disappointed.

GDP growth slowdown is projectedThe growth slowdown may continue. It is projected that GDP growth will be at the annual increase of 5% by various analytical and market research channel. However, it is anticipated that more aggressive easing and stimulus measures may only be introduced in spring 2022.

Triple pressure on Chinese EconomyThe Chinese economy is facing three types of pressures on both the supply and demand sides: contracting demand, supply-side shocks, and weakened expectations.

Policy review on campaign against carbon emission and energy consumption:The current memo highlighted that “coal as the major energy source is one fundamental reality of the country” and the government should “push for an optimized mix of coal and alternative energy”. The memo eased energy consumption controls by excluding the use of additional renewable energy from total energy consumption cap.

Zero-Covid strategy will extend to 2022:China has been leading globally in containing Covid-19 and will continue to stop the coronavirus reaching China from abroad, Beijing will not abandon its zero-Covid strategy (ZCS) any time soon, in line with our view that Beijing will extend it well into 2022 or 2023 However, its gains are likely to diminish, while its pains could rapidly rise, exerting downward pressure on growth in 2022.

Net injection of RMB750 billion to increase liquidity:The People Bank of China released RMB1.2trn of liquidity by implementing the announced 50bp universal RRR cut. It also rolled over RMB500bn of the RMB950bn in maturing MLF, resulting in a net liquidity injection of RMB750bn.

Action on foreign exchange to weaken Yuan:The People’ Bank of China announced an 2pp RRR hike on FX deposits to 9% from 7%. It is a clear signal that it does not want to see a stronger yuan after a period of rapid appreciation against its basket. The action is also in line with the forecast on an incoming weaker export growth.

CPI inflation will most likely be on an uptrend:Due to growth slowdown and the zero-Covid strategy, Nomura projects CPI inflation is most likely be on an uptrend and might be below 3.0%. CPI inflation risk is not low due to weak demand.

Singapore

Singapore economy grew 7.1% in Q3, full-year GDP growth narrowed to about 7%. Despite aviation and tourism related sectors seeing a slow recovery, semiconductors and financial services in insurance and fund management were some of the stronger performers in 2021.

Singapore is expected to grow moderately by 3-5% for 2022. High vaccination rate and travel lane expansions with countries will help bolster air travel and ease labour shortages for various sectors reliant on foreign labour.

Credit/Payment processing services, IT digital solutions, Financial Services and Semiconductors will continue to be growth sectors going into 2022.

New Zealand

Forecasts of household spending, residential construction and business investment have been revised lower for the year to March 2022: This reflects a degree of uncertainty about the new strain of COVID-19 plus the effects of the physical constraints from the New Zealand economy operating at Alert Level 4, and subsequently its largest city Auckland and some neighbouring regions at Alert Level 3 (with the social distancing restrictions of Alert Level 2 for the rest of the country also having an impact). Beyond March 2022, growth has been revised slightly higher, indicating that households and businesses are expected to stay resilient. While the latest lockdown in Auckland has dented consumer confidence, stronger wage growth resulting from acute labour shortages is supporting household spending.

Nonetheless, higher labour costs are sharpening businesses’ focus on investment in labour saving technology: Growing capacity pressures in the New Zealand economy are contributing to a sharp rise in inflation, followed by a fall. Despite this, beyond near-term expectations of annual CPI inflation rising above 5 percent in 2022, price rises are expected to remain elevated above the Reserve Bank’s inflation target mid-point of 2 percent through to 2025.

Near-term growth outlook revised lower Forecasts for GDP have again been revised lower in the near term: This reflects supply constraints and the effects of the lockdown restrictions persisting in New Zealand for much longer than initially expected. Annual average growth in GDP for the year to March 2022 has been revised down to 4.3 percent. However, the upward revision to growth forecasts for the subsequent years suggests a continued positive growth outlook.

Export outlook more positive: Forecasts for export growth have been revised higher over much of the projection, reflecting strong global demand. Although new variants of COVID -19 introduce additional uncertainty to the global growth outlook, demand for New Zealand exports is expected to remain strong over the coming years. Meanwhile, the import growth outlook remains solid despite the disruption.

Inflation outlook revised sharply higher: CPI inflation increased sharply in the September quarter, and forecasts are for inflation to settle back while remaining elevated through to 2025. Annual CPI inflation is forecast to surge to above 5 percent for the year to March 2022 before edging back within the Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 1 to 3 percent in the following year. Nonetheless, inflation is expected to remain above the inflation target mid-point over the coming years.

Labour shortages underpin wage growth: Forecasts for annual wage growth have been revised higher through to 2024, as the labour market is expected to remain very tight over the coming years. The average forecast for the unemployment rate is for it to track 3.6 percent through to 2023 before lifting in the subsequent years.
Source – New Zealand Institute of Economic Research

EUROPE

Denmark

GDP in Denmark is expected to reach ca. 325 USD Billion by the end of 2021: It is a drop down from 356.08 billion US in 2020. The Danish economy advanced by 2.0 percent on quarter in the three months to September of 2021, slowing from a 2.8 percent expansion in the previous period. According to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations the Denmark GDP is projected to trend around 340.00 USD Billion in 2022, so a slower but still solid rebound. In the long-term, the Denmark GDP Growth Rate is thereby projected to trend around 0.60 percent in 2022 and most likely a slower around 0.50 percent growth in 2023.

The unemployment rate in Denmark declined to 3.3 percent in September of 2021: It was a downwardly revised 3.5 percent in the previous month. It was the lowest jobless rate since December 2008, as the number of unemployed people decreased by 5,400 to 94,617. The unemployment rate for men fell to 3.2 percent in September from 3.4 percent in August, while for women dropped to 3.4 percent from 3.6 percent. Denmark is expected to be 3.90 percent by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts’ expectations. In the long-term, the Denmark Unemployment Rate is projected to trend around 4.10 percent in 2022 and 4.00 percent in 2023.

Danish consumer confidence index dropped into negative territory for the first time in 7 months: It fell to -2.0 in November of 2021 from 3.3 in the previous month, amid rising

COVID-19 infections. It was the weakest reading since March, due to a deterioration in both households’ views on households' financial situation the next 12 months (5.7 vs 9.8 in October) and the general economic situation in the next 12 months (-3.2 vs 9.7). Denmark recorded 453802 Coronavirus Cases since the epidemic began, according to the World Health Organization (WHO). In addition, Denmark reported 2816 Coronavirus Deaths.
All data delivered by and copyright to ©2021 TRADING ECONOMICS

France

The economic recovery continues in France: However, the points of vigilance are becoming more salient, whether it be inflationary pressures or the return of health uncertainty. In the major economies of the euro zone, the recovery was clear during the summer. France has broadly returned to its pre-crisis level of activity (Q4 2019) by Q3 2021.

The forecast for France in the second quarter of 2022: Assuming that by then health restrictions would not tighten further, only marginally affecting the momentum of the recovery at the macro level, and that supply difficulties would persist in part, dissipating only slowly. In this context, the French economy would continue to rebound, at a rate of +0.5% in the fourth quarter of 2021, +0.4% in the first quarter of 2022 and +0.5% in the second.

In spring 2022, French GDP would then be 1.4% above its pre-crisis level: The mid-year growth rate (i.e., the annual growth rate that would be obtained for 2022 if economic activity were to remain frozen in the third and fourth quarters at the level forecast for the second quarter) would amount to +3.0%, after GDP growth of +6.7% on average per year in 2021.
French growth would be driven mainly by market services, and to a lesser extent by industry. The rebound of certain services that were badly affected in 2020-2021 by the measures taken to contain the epidemic, such as international tourism, should nevertheless remain hesitant due to the health context. Household consumption should return to its pre-crisis level in the first half of 2022, while business investment should slow down after its very strong growth in 2021. Exports are expected to remain below their pre-crisis level, but to rise sharply in the fourth quarter of 2021 and then in the second quarter of 2022 on the back of large ship deliveries.

After its very strong rebound, employment is expected to continue to grow: However, at a slower pace, in line with economic activity. Wage employment would thus increase by a little more than 150,000 in the second half of 2021, then by 80,000 in the first half of 2022. The working population is expected to stabilise over the forecast horizon, following its sharp rise this summer when the activity rate reached an unprecedented level. The unemployment rate falls to 7.8% of the labour force in the fourth quarter of 2021 and gradually declines to 7.6% in the first half of 2022.

The year-on-year increase in consumer prices reached 2.8% in November 2021: It is mainly driven by energy prices. Assuming that oil and commodity prices stabilise, inflation would remain above 2.5% in the first half of 2022, but its composition would change: the contribution of energy would decrease while that of manufactured goods would increase, reflecting with a delay the very sharp rise in industrial production prices (+14% over one year in October 2021).

Thus, the economic situation remains singular in many respects, and several hazards are likely to affect the forecast, both upwards and downwards.

Even if economic activity is now more resilient to the resurgence of Covid-19, the fifth wave and the appearance of a new variant whose danger is not yet fully understood reinforce the uncertainty. Constraints on supplies appeared very early in the recovery: a possible normalisation of the health situation, particularly in Asia, could help to reduce them. In parallel, inflationary pressures raise the question of the timing of monetary policy tightening. Finally, consumption could eventually prove to be more dynamic than expected, if households draw on some of the savings accumulated during the confinements.
Source: INSEE

Germany

The current general business atmosphere in Germany looks uncertain: This is because the forecasts are declining again. Business spirit in a few sectors is ongoing positive but even those are facing shortages of qualified employees or of pre-products or basic materials. Influence from pandemic shall continue in Q1 of 2022 with restructuring effort or lockdowns and small government recovery spending and job retention schemes. Some details at German Central Bank web page show small differences only in numbers for sector by sector compared to other countries in Europe and North America.

The GDP forecast numbers for 2021 and the outlook for 2022 are declining : The data from German Central Bank is 5.2% for 2022 down to 4.2% increase as of 13th of December 2021. Decreases in forecast may continue resulting in not reaching the 2019 numbers again in 2022 but later - accompanied by cancellation for lots of business events in the first quarter of 2022.

Unemployment rate in Germany is still low but not a meaningful data due to job retention schemes and some so-called career qualification programs.

Inflation is growing: The European Central Bank ECB is targeting slow against it and will do so for the whole of 2022, not following the decisions from US and UK Central banks. This could be good for governments in some countries but unsettle citizens and not help consumers and the economy at all.

The federal elections in September 2021 resulted in a red-green-yellow coalition. Current announcements sound future oriented. In detail it looks like red for socialistic spending, green for directives and controls oriented and liberal or free for business or innovation friendly and the result may be positive for employees and scary on the capital or saving side. How long the coalition is enduring time will tell indeed.

There is a lack of monies in federal government due to the pandemic: Europe wide recovery programs implemented mid 2020 with 750 bn Euro targets for most southern European countries sound beneficial. For Germany after benefits it means a net spending of 25-30 % of the large sum. Later in 2021, pandemic effects in Germany were stronger and monies are missing for some investment, innovation and recovery activities in the country. As a result, federal government is looking for household tricks.

For employees the country remains attractive due to social system, wages, living quality and security. Some sectors are best in class worldwide in innovation and production ranging from mRNA vaccine development to environmentally friendly production technologies. Foreign investors still aim for Germany, arguments range from safe haven for money to the economic, social and political stability.

Russia

The inflation in Russia in 2021 grew faster than in many other countries. By the end of 2021, The Central Bank of Russia expects inflation to be between 7.4 - 7.9%. The intention now is to pursue a monetary policy that will lead inflation to the goal of being closer to 4%. The Central Bank of Russia has been consistently raising its key rate since spring from 4.25% to the current 7.5%.

The Russian Ministry of Economy expects an increase of GDP at the level of 4.2% for 2021: GDP growth in 2022 is expected to be at 3.0%. In a briefing with AEB, the head of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, estimated the growth rate to be 4-4.5% this year. According to The World Bank the economic growth of Russia in 2022 will be only 2.4 %.

Employment/Unemployment forecasts for 2022: After a peak in the unemployment at 6.4% in August 2020 the unemployment dropped to only 4.3% in September 2021 in Russia according to Statista. The slow restoration of economic growth will promote a positive development of the labour market. With the help of a state program, national projects and regional projects, the following measures are to be realized in the future: training of unemployed citizens and the increase of efficiency in employment services; creation and
support of information systems and digital services; support for entrepreneurial activities and self-employment of citizens; and last but not least the digitalization of labour relations to develop more flexible or remote forms of employment.

For 2022 Trading Economics forecasts 4.1% unemployment and as low as 3.8% in 2023.

Oil Export and Forecast 2022: As the dynamics of physical volumes of oil exports stabilize and oil prices decrease, oil exports will shift to moderate growth and support the overall economic growth. We are now approaching the level of consumption that we had before the pandemic started. It is said to be quite possible that the pre-pandemic level will even be exceeded according to Stanislav Mitrakhovich, leading expert of the National Energy Security Fund and the Financial University. Similarly, Deputy Energy Minister Pavel Sorokin estimates that, as soon as the OPEC+ deal and the market’s needs allow, Russia will be able to speed up its oil output to pre-pandemic levels. According to Bloomberg calculations, Russia’s forecasted output for next year will be equivalent to an average of 11.24 million barrels per day. Russia produced 11.25 million barrels a day in 2019, the highest level in its post-Soviet history.

Major Events affecting 2022 Outlook: In 2022 there will be a simplified tax system. Changes will be made in order to simplify payments. For example, lawmakers will study the possibility of introducing a single tax for businesses, which will be very convenient for the self-employed individuals.

Spain

GDP is forecast to grow by 5.5% in 2022 and 3.8% in 2023, supported by tax and monetary policies.

Domestic demand will be the main driver of growth due to: (i) rising confidence, (ii) an improving labour market, (iii) favourable financing conditions and (iv) public funds from the European Recovery Plan, in order to boost private consumption and investment.

Headline Inflation in 2022 will remain high, due to the carryover effect from 2021, while core inflation will remain at a moderate level. Tax policies are expected to remain favourable in 2022 and broadly neutral in 2023.

1. The unemployment rate will reach 14.6% in Q4 2021.
2. Public debt will also stand at very high levels, close to 117% of GDP.
3. The inflation rate forecast for 2021 is 5.2%.

2022 areas of interest: A new law on tax exemptions is approved for both start-ups and entrepreneurs who are able to locate their companies in the Spanish territory. Real Estate will also continue to rise.

UK

Household spending would remain the key driver of the economy: The Confederation of British Industry, the UK’s leading business lobby group, said in June 2021 that it expected the economy to expand by 8.2% in 2022. But in December 2021 it cut that prediction to 6.9% and revised down its 2022 forecast from 6.9% to 5.1%.

The accounting firm KPMG issued an even gloomier prediction, saying it expects growth to reach 4.2% next year at best, even if the Omicron variant turns out to be a “false alarm”. Household spending would remain the key driver of the economy, the employers’ organisation said, generating 90% of growth in 2022, and two-thirds of gross domestic product in 2023.

Consumer spending would be supported by households: They would be running down excess savings accumulated during the pandemic. It predicted unemployment would rise only slightly as a result of the winding-up of the government’s furlough scheme and the jobless rate would return to its pre-crisis level of 3.8% by the end of 2023.

The U.K. is headed for the fastest growth in the G-7 this year and next: The findings highlight risks from the pandemic and Britain’s departure from the European Union, which have added friction at the border that’s disrupting the flow of goods and workers. The forecasts show that by 2023, the year before the deadline for the next election, growth is likely to moderate sharply while inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2% target.

“Labour shortages are emerging in sectors particularly affected by the pandemic and in which EU-born migrants were also over-represented, such as accommodation and food services,” the OECD said in its report.

UK SME business owners voiced their concern about the impact Brexit is having on their trading: 56% of business owners are finding it more difficult to buy and/or sell with the EU compared to 32% who have not seen their trading impacted. 2022 should see an easing of these issues as clarity and awareness of requirements become the norm.

Rapid house prices growth seen during the past year is expected to moderate: This is largely due to the rising cost of mortgages and the end of the temporary cut to stamp duty. Some locations may continue to benefit from buyers who can take advantage of a reduced need for commuting to move away from traditional market hotspots in favour of more affordable alternatives further afield.

THE AMERICAS

BRAZIL

2021 Brazilian Economy - The Brazilian economy in 2021 was severely impacted by the Covid 19 pandemic. The valuation of the dollar and most recently by the oil hike, among other internal factors and the historical chaos of the 3-year recession has given cause to the inflation burst, followed by the institution of its antidote, the abrupt hike in the interest rates.

2022 and 2023 Brazilian GDP / Other Economic KPI’s Outlook Central Bank of Brazil just divulged their Focus Survey Report of 12/27, containing the representative Economic & Financial Market Agents’ forecast for the 2022 and 2023 Economic KPI’s, as follows:

a) GDP estimates for 2021 closed at 4.51%; 2022 and 2023 GDP forecasts quoted at 0.42% and 1.80, respectively

b)Inflation Rate estimate for 2021 reached 10.02%, vs. official target of 3.75%, 2022 and 2023 forecasts are reported to be 5.03% (target: 3.5%) and 3.38% respectively

c) Official Annual Interest Rate (Selic), currently at 9.25%, is forecasted at 11.50% for 2022 and 8.00% for 2023

d) Total Direct Investments in 2021 were US$ 52 billion; forecasts for 2022 points at US$ 58 billion and US$ 70 billion for 2023.

Improvement in the Unemployment Rate – There has been a noticeable recovery in
the Brazilian general labor market, since the last quarter of 2021. Despite of the historical high unemployment figure, back from the last years of the Brazilian economic recession, there has been a confirmed improvement in the general/overall labor market situation, in most of the economic sectors. According to IPEA – Institute of Applied Economic Research, of IBGE, in their 12/21 Report, the general unemployment rate dropped from about 13.5% down to 12.5%, the lowest level since April 2020. The number of “desalentados”/hopeless, discouraged workers (those who constantly looked for jobs for over 2 years and have given up doing it) fell from 58 million down to 5.1 million.

“Programa AuxĂ­lio Brasil” – Effective immediately, a meaningful social program, in terms of continuous financial help and increased benefit to the “very poor” has been launched by the government, replacing a traditional program of lower financial benefit. The program calls for a monthly pay of R$ 400,00 (around US$ 72.00) to about 17 million families, at a cost of R$ 89 billion (US$ 16 billion).

EVE AIR MOBILITY - Brazilian Flying Car Program – Embraer, the Brazilian transnational manufacturer and exporter of 130 seat commercial jets, executive and military jets, and agricultural aircrafts, has announced the initial production of 300 flying cars. As a subsidiary of Embraer, Eve holds a partnering investment with US Zanite of US$ 2.4-US$ 2.9 billion and will be listed in the NYSE, under Embraer -

USA

Business and Economic Overview – A truly mixed bag:

• The US economy is still growing as various reports indicate that households/consumers continue spending despite an ongoing increase of COVID-19 cases including the known and identified delta and omicron variants.

• Credit card spending and increasing balances with higher minimum payments may slow spending if the recovery faulters. Inflation is being felt most heavily by buyers of big-ticket items such as cars, homes and other major capital expenditures.

• Almost every report suggests that higher inflation is weighing on purchasing power but many consumers who have not purchased major capital items such as new homes and automobiles seem to be disregarding what appears to be the highest increase in consumer inflation for almost 40 years.

• Supply chain bottlenecks continue despite governmental intervention to reduce impediments to off-loading imports. Media reports point to an apparent easing of shortages in most supply chain categories.

• Downside risks are highly varied and very recent reports suggest an easing. Retailers including the famed $dollar stores are raising prices which will likely burden lower income consumers.

• Commodity prices increases may be edging down at the producer level but have shown minimal impact on end-user (consumer) prices we track.

• Financial pundits are claiming that inflation expectations are edging down from what are the highest levels in almost 40 years and remain well above the pre virus crisis levels.

• The uncertainty of rising interest rates which are continually being altered by the Federal Reserve appear to be causing a discomfort amongst investors, lenders and borrowers.

• The apparent % of economic growth when adjusted for inflation still seems to be a healthy 3-4%.

The Jobs Market and Wages are even more inconsistent:

• The jobs market appears to be steadying with the shortfall of available workers at the lower wage levels and the “great quitting” poorly explained at the moment. We note that it appears that the largest international executive search firms are now offer their services at far lower levels using various search engines to identify and perhaps even qualify potential candidate prospects.

• While multiple sources appear to be a bit inconsistent in explaining the reasons for the above – it appears that there is a plethora of reasons for individuals making decisions to leave their employment. Personal issues including vaccine mandates, high costs for child and elder care as well as increased transportation expenses are often sited but data appears inconsistent. The availability of jobless benefits (wage replacement) is waning and may contribute to more active job seeking than previously. Employer preferences are also a part of an ongoing evolution including work from home or work from a specified location.

• As well, employers appear to be very inconsistent in hiring “contract employees” vs. full-time in areas for which demand may be unsettled. Contract employees typically receive more cash than their employee peers but are not likely to receive benefit plans which makes contractors more attractive in many cases. It is uncertain how well the quantitative analysis by various entities is reporting these results.

The Jobs Market and Wages show more inconsistency in forecasts: Wages in the form of direct compensation – salaried and hourly will likely rise particularly for low wage/low skill employees as many cannot justify the cost of working. Wages for professionals and technical employees including professionals and senior management are also likely to rise as long service employees are seemingly retiring. Airlines have released date which demonstrate the number of retirement eligible senior pilots who used to avoid retirement before mandatory age requirements – are now retiring earlier.

Questions continue to arise around various service jobs ranging from medical professionals to drivers. How bad will the shortage be in the near future as more attractive jobs continue to emerge or re-emerge. Governmental and private research is a bit inconsistent in their reporting and while some of the differences may be as a result of capturing slightly different timelines and various locations, it is clear that the labour market broadly defined, and employee compensation practices will be unsettled until other issues are resolved.

Unresolved Issues contributing to the variables we observe include but are not limited to matters largely beyond the control of individual employers, businesses, or employees. The somewhat more destabilized global issues – political, military, the Covid-19 pandemic and trade related all have an impact. Some specifics include:

1. The ongoing conflict and disturbance caused by the former president and his supporters

2. Division instead of consensus in our governmental action which is increasing societal, racial and economic conflicts. Consensus building is no longer readily possible, so reforms, economic recovery and life are generally harder.

3. Environmental issues and environmental remediation which require governmental consensus and support are being slowed.

4. Governmental and judicial inquiries into the conduct of political entities, citizens and business are disturbing progress.

5. Securities markets are increasingly volatile in the face of governmental inconsistency and lack of leadership.

US businesses and Global businesses doing business in the US are for the moment not particularly unsettled but as political figures disparage the business interests of our trading partners, concerns mount amongst investors, employers, economists, and government.

As we have analysed the varied predictions for growth and inflation, it is impossible to overlook the possibility of economic unsettlement as the western world contends with internal conflicts. As well, it is a contentious period amongst stake holders in Eastern Europe, particularly the relationships between the Russian and the Ukraine as well as the material refugee crisis emanating from the US withdrawal from Afghanistan. Continued issues with China and the impact of Covid-19, which are quite unsettled, make forecasts for 2022 very tenuous.

If current consumer and employer demand continue without major undesirable global events, it would appear that a continuation of pre-Covid employment growth (3-4%) and modest acceleration of GDP as adjusted for inflation should continue. We are all ware of the possibilities of unexpected events undoing the realization of growth.

We have not carved out Canada as the size of Canada and their exceptional growth in 2021 suggest continuation of modest employment growth with stability and acceleration. Natural resource products as well as financial growth are expected but probably not at the same levels as were sustained in 2021.

We close with the thought that unsettlement in the social, political and governmental issues are contributing to an air of uncertainty in the economy at large as well as in the employment markets. We need to be watchful and adjust as needed.

 

 

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